submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]
Fundamental U.S. dollar forecast for today
Investors do not believe in the U.S. economy and sell off the U.S. dollarWhen the U.S. economy looks like a bubble, the dollar can’t but fall. Investors have not been confused by the biggest rise of the U.S. manufacturing PMI since February 2019. The U.S. employment in the private sector added 165,000 jobs in July, sharply missing expectations of more than 1 million new jobs. The number of jobless claims, according to the experts polled by the Wall Street Journal, should continue rising. When people had money granted by the government, they spent it. Now, they have run out of money. Democrats and Republicans can’t reach an agreement on the extra financial aid package, and this is a big problem.
Dynamics of U.S. employment
Source: Wall Street Journal
The $600 unemployment boost expired on July 31. It will result in a sharp decline in household spending and a slowdown in the U.S. GDP recovery. In the middle of summer, over 12 million people received benefits, which allowed them to pay rent, utilities, auto, and other loans. Now, financial aid has finished, and the debts continue growing.
The unemployment benefits, supporting consumer spending, is only the tip of the iceberg. The US labor market is weak, which kills the hope for the V-shaped GDP rebound. According to the poll of the National Federation of Independent Business, about 20% of firms plan to lay off workers after using the loans from the Paycheck Protection Program. According to Cornell University, one in four workers, recruited back through the program, received a notice that they could be fired again.
The grim outlook of the U.S. economy contrasts with the confidence in a soon rebound of the euro-area GDP, which is signaled by the euro-area PMI report, which is stronger than the flash data.
Dynamics of euro-area PMIs
According to the Societe Generale, there is no doubt the dollar has made a cyclical turn now and should continue falling amid the current Fed’s monetary policy stance and the outlook for the U.S. growth over the next few years. 33 of 62 experts surveyed by Reuters said the USD bear trend would continue for at least another six months. 15 analysts, said it would be less than six months. While 11 said it would be less than three months, just three respondents said it was already over. The consensus view suggests the EUUSD will be trading at 1.18 in August 2021, which is the highest in a year.
In my opinion, the market is too fast. It starts pricing the weak data on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls in July. As a result, volatility risks are growing. The euro could grow first, and, next, it could fall even faster, as big traders should be exiting longs. However, we should see the publication of the U.S. jobless claims data, which can push the EUUSD up above 1.192. I recommend holding the long positions opened at level 1.173 and preparing for exiting a part of trades.
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In the section you will find technical analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/RUB, as well as trade signals and recommendations on the current market situation. Forex forecasts for today, tomorrow, every day is updated daily, subscribe to news and get FOREX forecasts currency pairs for your mail every day. EUR USD forecast for tomorrow, this week and month. Euro Dollar converter. Dollar to Euro and Euro to Dollar exchange rate and forecast. The forecast in tables by day: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. EURO TO DOLLAR FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, WEEK AND MONTH. 2020/11/12. EUR TO USD TODAY. Current EUR to USD exchange rate equal to 1.1808 Dollars per 1 Euro. Today's range: 1.1806-1 ... EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Shows Negativity The Euro initially tried to rally on Wednesday, but then broke down towards the 50 day EMA. This is a continuation of the overall consolidation range. EUR/USD Price Forecast: Here's What To Expect Today Investing.com UK 14:56 EUR/USD: Upside remains capped by 1.1820 ahead of ECB Forum FXstreet 14:50 EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Bounces From 50 Day EMA FX Empire 14:48 EUR/USD Analysis and Forecast for today, tomorrow, week. This section includes EUR/USD daily forecasts for today and tomorrow. Professional forecasts from private traders, leading experts and analysts of Forex brokers. We are selecting only the high quality forecasts of the main currency pair of Forex market (euro dollar) with the highlight to their simplicity and plainness. It’s vital for ... EUR USD Forecast takes into account such matters and includes them in the predictions. EUR USD Forecast Takes Time. When it comes to making predictions, especially for major currency pairs like the eur usd forecast, time is significant. Since there is a lot to look at, we try to narrow everything down and focus on the most critical parts of it all. Euro Forecast: Performance after US Elections, COVID-19 Vaccine is a Bad Omen for EUR/JPY, EUR/USD 2020-11-11 15:00:00 US Dollar Cycle Analysis: Implications for DXY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD The EUR/USD pair extended its weekly decline to 1.1745, to stabilize in the 1.1770 price zone during American trading hours, as volatility shrank due EUR/USD recovers modestly after dropping to ... EUR/USD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long EUR/USD for the first time since May 18, 2020 when EUR/USD traded near 1.09. 2020-11-02 12:23:00 EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Biden knocking on White House’s doors, covid out of control The EUR/USD pair hit a two-month high of 1.1919 this week but ends it in the red a handful of pips above the ...
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